Моделирование и прогнозирование мировой динамики

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Modeling and forecasting of world development studies not only the world economy, but also political science, international economic relations, as well as business communication, analysis of financial markets and many other disciplines, one way or another related to the world community. The need for long-term forecasting of world demographic, economic, environmental processes was acutely realized in the middle of the twentieth century, when various organizations around the world, including the UN, began to engage in modeling and forecasting of global processes. However, despite the large number of studies and various models in this area, now modeling of world dynamics is experiencing a certain crisis, the manifestation of which was the inability to clearly predict the world financial and economic shocks of 2008.. To overcome existing problems, it is necessary to rethink the principles underlying the modeling of world dynamics. It is necessary to avoid the temptation of complicating models, to make them more transparent, while not losing, but increasing the level of their consistency. Work in this direction was carried out during 20092011. in the framework of research under the subprogram "Integrated System Analysis and Modeling of World Dynamics" of the RAS Presidium program "Economics and Sociology of Knowledge" . The purpose of the research was to develop systematic interdisciplinary approaches to the analysis and forecasting of modern macro trends and economic cycles ,. Demographic , Politically , Socially , cultural and technological world and regional dynamics , as well as their use in strategic and macro-historical forecasting of the development of Russia and the world. This book presents the main research results obtained in the framework of this scientific project.
LF/985390551/R
Data sheet
- Name of the Author
- Акаев А.А.
Коротаев А.В.
Малков С.Ю.
Садовничий В.А. - Language
- Russian
- Series
- Экономика и социология знания
- ISBN
- 9785755604567
- Release date
- 2012