The training manual was compiled for study by undergraduates of the direction of training 09. 04. 03 - Applied informatics of the discipline "Modeling production processes under risk" . The work includes sections related to the construction of models with deterministic and uncertain parameters for solving problems of optimizing the production of food products, taking into account natural, man-made events and their combination. The main purpose of the manual is to develop the student's skills of modeling production processes under risk, allowing to provide effective managerial solutions to applied problems when affecting the work of enterprises of the agro-industrial complex of external extreme events. Examples on real objects, given in the work, show the possibilities of improving long-term planning of agricultural production taking into account risks. The training manual is intended for students of the training direction 09. 04. 03 - Applied Informatics . At the same time, the work can be useful for students and undergraduates in the enlarged groups of preparation of directions 35. 00. 00 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries and 38. 00. Economics and Management .